Keegan Bradley: 21/1

Defending this week in only his 43rd tournament on Tour. Last week at the Players hopefully saw the end of Keegan’s mini slump of two missed cuts in New Orleans and Quail Hollow. Last years winning total was four under as the field battled winds of 30 mph all week. Bradley won after a a sudden death playoff with Ryan Palmer.

Jason Day: 27/1

After a top 10 at Quail Hollow I tipped Jason to perform at The Players but he ended up missing the cut by one shot. Rather than write him off however I’m going to give the Aussie another shot this week as his game is tailored made for this Las Colinas layout, especially if the wind blows as it has done for the past two years. Day needed only 101 putts when he won here in 2010 and went 69, 67 at the weekend to finish fifth when defending last year. Surely a change in fortune is on the cards this week.

Jason Dufner: 20/1

The Zurich Classic winner took a week off before returning to the fray at The Players but struggled to find his form throughout. Dufner however can be major threat again this week, as he tends to thrive on tougher courses. One of the few players to break par in the final round last year, he ended up in a tie for eighth. Those who waggle their clubs are not popular on Tour right now, but for Jason we’ll make an exception!

Ernie Els: 30/1

Winless since December 2010, the odds on Ernie Els are a healthy 30/1 and ever increasing. Els has decided to include this event in his schedule after bypassing it for the past number of years. Though he missed the cut at Sawgrass, three top fives in his last six starts, including being second to Dufner in New Orleans, is impressive and Els is a master in windy conditions. I think he has circled this event as one at which he can break through again.

Best Of The Rest

Don’t discount last weeks winner Matt Kuchar 15/1 for a second. The man is so laid back he can continue to produce good golf on a course where he tied for sixth last year. With three top 10’s in his last six events Brian Davis 55/1 returns to a happy hunting ground at TPC Four Seasons. Davis has top 10’d twice out of the three cuts he has made here with a best of solo second in 2009 behind Rory Sabbatini in benign conditions. If the wind is low this week, Davis will certainly be one to watch. Jeff Overton 50/1 followed an opening 78 at Sawgrass with a 69 but missed the cut on 3 over. I had expected more from the Ryder Cupper who seems to be on the way back up after early season top fives at The Transitions and in Houston. Jeff tied for second here in 2010 and shot a 64 in the opening round last year on his way to tied eighth. I expect a good performance. And finally is he’s in the mood after another top 10 last week at The Players, keep an eye on Carl Pettersson from 32/1. A recent win at The Heritage and a second in Houston, 2012 is turning out to be a bumper year for the bumpy Swede. Faded at the weekend last season but not before some impressive stuff in the opening rounds.

What a sporting weekend. First a Grand Prix then a City United seesaw then The Players Championship final round. Matt Kuchar, ever smiling, held off all the rest to take the Waterford Crystal trophy.

Kuch finished 13 shots under par, two ahead of Rickie Fowler, Zach Johnson, Martin Laird and Ben Curtis. He started the final round behind Kevin Na, the man everybody had been talking about all weekend, but for his constant fidgeting rather than his golf. Na’s incessant waggling, backing off shots and talking attracted the ire of players, caddies and commentators.

With rounds of 68-68-69-70 and an absence of high profile players like Woods, Mickelson and McIlroy (who missed the cut) in the final groups, this was always going to be mental battle for Kuchar, who was paired with Na.

“I feel like my mental game is one of my strongest suits,” said Kuchar, who pocketed $1.7 million and vaulted to No. 5 in the official world golf rankings. “Playing against a guy who may be a distraction isn’t going to bother me. I knew before the round started it wasn’t going to get the best of me. … My demeanor probably is one of my strong suits for the game of golf. Kevin’s a great guy, nice to everybody. He’s just fighting through demons. It’s not an envious thing to do. I’m glad it’s not happening to me.”

Na himself finished in a tie for seventh after a 76 and afterwards told the media about his waggle woes “I had a lot of people heckling me out there, also people pulling for me, which I appreciated,” Na said. “I do need to work on my pre-shot routine. I do need to play faster. But the average golfer has no clue how much pressure we’re playing under and how tough it is and how much of a fight for it it is mentally. I was 40 yards ahead of Matt basically trying to sprint out to my ball so I can get to it with extra time. I’m going to try to take out the whole waggle. I’m going to try to do a little up-and-down behind the ball, but it’s going to take time, practice and tournaments, and I’m going to try to take out the whole waggle. Honestly, it’s going to be a battle.”

But enough about the waggles and back to the smiles. What is it about 33 year old Kuchar that has him permanently grinning? The smile is constant, as if it is surgically planted on his face. Good luck rattling Matt Kuchar, who can find a positive in just about anything on a golf course, where tempers typically thrive. “Yeah, he’s smiling all the time,” said Kuchar’s father, Peter. “But he’ll step on your throat.”

The Players was Kuchar’s fourth victory, the first came 10 years ago at the Honda Classic and the intervening period involved an extended stay on the Nationwide Tour. Over the past three years Kuchar had a reputation as a top-10 mchine, but managed only one win at the 2010 Barclays. He turned around his career after a visit to Dallas-based instructor Chris O’Connell, who helped change his technique after hitting just five balls.

On the final green Kuchar was joined by wife Sybi along with sons Cameron, 4, and Carson, 2½. Needless to say it was “all smiles”.

On the European Tour it was a quiet week at the Madeira Islands Open with many of the big stars away. Ricardo Santos took advantage of the situation however to shoot a 9-under 63 Sunday to win by four shots. Santos, who had a European Tour record 20 putts in round three, became the first Portuguese-born golfer to win on the European Tour in his home country.

In coming from four strokes behind and birdied his closing three holes, Santos set a championship record of 22 under on the Santa da Serra course and also set a record for lowest winning final round in the 19-year history of the event. “I don’t have the words to describe this week as it is very emotional,” he said. “To win my first European Tour event in my own country is very special. It was a sensational round and definitely the best of my career.” Sweden’s Magnus Carlsson waas second with Denmark’s Andreas Harto in third. In winning Santos earned a one-year tour exemption and an entry spot at the upcoming PGA Championship at Wentworth.

This week the European Tour does matchplay at the Volvo World Match Play Championship at Finca Cortesin in Spain. The news there is that Paul Casey has again been forced to withdraw from the 24 man field. Casey had to pull out of the Players Championship after shooting a 42 on the front nine in the first round. He is still struggling with a shoulder injury after dislocating it over the holidays. “Unfortunately, despite having had intensive treatment since last Thursday, I have been advised not to play,” Casey said. “I am absolutely gutted as it is one of my favorite events and I was really looking forward to a week of match play to kick-start my season. I am very sorry to miss out.” A very happy Robert Karlsson has been drafted in to take his place in a strong field alongside Poulter, Garcia, Kaymer and the rest.

And finally….if you dont want to hear about Tiger Woods “progression”…..look away now! Woods, wearing metal spikes for the first time in years because the reckons his knee is finally healthy enough to do so, finished down the field tied for 40th. It’s fair to say Woods, like Rory McIlory (who has missed three cuts there), is not a big Sawgrass fan. Since he won there in 2001, he managed only one top 10 since. Woods will most likely play next at the Memorial, a place where he’s won four times.

And finally finally, the world number one is……still Rory! Luke Donald’s sixth place finish meant he just fell short of retaking top spot.

Since 2003 the average number of times a player competed at Sawgrass before winning is eight.  This year marks Donald’s tenth start with bests of a tied second in 2005 and tied fourth last year.  Donald comes back this week after a weeks rest and hoping to continue his good recent run which includes a win at the Transitions and third last time out in New Orleans.  Will Donald be back at World Number One this time next week in the ping pong game that is the World Golf Rankings.

Jason Day 40/1

Almost the forgotten young gun of late with Rickie Fowler winning in Charlotte and Rory McIlroy once again taking over at world number one but Jason Day has been quietly going about his business and is primed to strike.  Tied for ninth last week in his first tournament back since injuring his left ankle and having to withdraw at The Masters.  Finished strongly last year with a Sunday 68 to tie for sixth and has the character to contend in marquee events such as this.

Francesco Molinari 80/1

The Stadium Course at Sawgrass is a ball striker’s course with a roll of honour including names such as Mickelson, Garcia, Clark and Choi.  For me Francesco Molinari is Europe’s best iron player and were it not for his erratic putting would be in contention far more often.  The Italian however showed some flat blade prowess last week winning in a canter in Seville and by his own admission loves Sawgrass.  Top tenned here in 2010 and is my nap of the week.

Ben Curtis 140/1

Sawgrass rewards greens in regulation merchants and those who keep their ball in play with shorter guys like Toms, Choi and Tim Clark all excelling here in the recent past.  The form man in that bracket according to the PGA Tour’s stats is Ben Curtis who last week in Charlotte added another top five finish to his win in Texas.  What a whirlwind few weeks it has been for Curtis and on another Pete Dye layout this week its time to “make hay while the sun shines”!

Best Of The Rest

Nick Watney 38/1 came off a missed cut at the Zurich Classic to shoot 68, 64 in the opening rounds at Quail Hollow last week but didn’t match it at the weekend with 72, 74 dropping him down to 8^th place.  That should boost his confidence heading into Sawgrass where he shot 64 last year on Thursday  on his way to tying fourth.  Not the most reliable form wise but worth circling with your biro.

JB Holmes 130/1 is another man who tends to punch above his weight in this event with three top 10’s here in the last four years and is sure to be decent odds across the bookies this week after a Sunday 77 last week sent him sliding down the leaderboard.  Tied sixth last year and third in 2010.

You cant help but feel for Henrik Stenson 120/1 who continues to battle with his game.  The 2009 winner has strung some good rounds together at Bay Hill and Houston and even made a cameo at the Masters but hasn’t managed to hold it together for four rounds on the big stage of late.  The Swede however retains one of the best Sawgrass records in the field and would really be a long odds glory shot.

Rory McIlroy has to content himself with the consolation prize of returning to No. 1 in the ping pong game that is the Official World Golf Ranking. Both he and No. 2 Luke Donald will battle it out at this week’s Players Championship.

Lee Westwood can be quite happy with his week too. He tied for fifth having made the cut on the number then shooting 68-66 on the weekend with stand in caddie Casey Kerr. Regular hoofer Billy Foster may miss the US and British Opens after a freak injury involving a soccer ball. Foster was just after telling fellow European Tour caddies he was too old to play in a mess around game at Quail Hollow, when he lunged to kick the ball and blew out ligaments in his knee.

And what about Tiger Woods in Charlotte? They did their best to keep him in the tournament for the week but in the end not even a free drop after a lost ball could save Tiger Woods from missing the cut.

Woods hit a ball into fans on the fifth during his second round but no golf ball could be found. One older man in the crowd said he thought he saw it come down. PGA Tour vice president for rules and competition (and obviously huge Tiger Woods fan) Mark Russell said. “People said they saw the ball bounce and go in that area and when people got around it, then it was gone.”

Russell decided not to declare the lost ball, a lost ball. Woods finished 1 under and missed the cut.

Meanwhile Ryan Moore got a penalty heaped on him when his ball moved before he tapped it in on the 11th. Apparently the rule change which was supposed to exonerate players who dont make their balls move didn’t apply. “I thought that was the whole point of the rule change after Webb Simpson’s incident last year,” Moore said. “I thought was to alleviate that because I certainly did not make the ball move and I thought that was the whole point of the rule change.”

It’s all simmering nicely ahead of this week’s Players Championship and the dreaded island green on the 17th!

Whats in the bag:

Rickie Fowler

Driver: Cobra AMP driver (8.3 º), with a Mitsubishi Rayon Diamana White Board 73X shaft, tipped 1½ inches, 45½ inches long
Fairway: Ping i20 (15°) with a Mitsubishi Diamana X shaft.
Hybrid: Adams Idea Pro Black hybrid 20° with a Matrix Ozik XCON HM2 shaft. Cut short!
Irons: Cobra AMP Pro prototypes 4- through 9-iron with True Temper Dynamic Gold X100 Tour issue shafts.
Wedges: . (48°, 50°, 55°, 59°) Titleist Vokey wedges
Putter: Scotty Cameron GoLo mallet

Alex Noren 30/1

We tipped Alex last week and though he finished just outside the money places we are sticking with him for one more week. Noren has the fitness to get back from Korea and contend straight away here in Seville. Opened with a horror 75 at the Ballantine’s last week but battled back with rounds of 66, 69, 69 for his second consecutive top-10. Has gone low on this course before and definitely worth a look.

Nico Colsaerts 16/1

Took last week off after his second in China and now has a haul of five top-10’s for the season including a second, third and fourth. The Belgian played well here in 2010, the last time the event was staged at this venue. That one was won by Alvaro Quiros, another huge hitter. This time around Colsaerts is the form player of the two.

George Coetzee 26/1

A win must be coming soon for George Coetzee as he bears down on Tour start number 69 in Seville this week. The South African brings back to back top10’s home from the Asian swing and appeared full of confidence when interviewed for TV at Blackstone. Missed the cut at elPrat last year but I cant see a recurrence of that. Quite the opposite in fact, I expect him to contend.

Paul Lawrie 27/1

You could make a case for Peter (winner here in 2008) or Paul Lawrie but I’m going for the Scot this week. A winner in Qatar and on a decent run since , reaching the last 16 of the WGC Matchplay, playing well at Augusta and again in China. Lawrie tied for fifth last year at El Prat and has played well in Seville before too finishing tied for sixth here in 2010.

Best Of The Rest

It’s only tournament number 40 for the young French star Romain Wattel (80/1) and he has already notched up four top-10’s, two of which have been in Spain. In the sixties at the weekend again in Korea where he tied for 12th and definitively one to watch. Francesco Molinari 18/1 is a man with no top 10 in this last five staging’s of this event but watching him in China two weeks back there was definitely more than a glimmer of hope. He’s been in the top 20 in his last five events and due a break soon.

Bill Haas 50/1

Haas was actually born in Charlotte and played his college golf at Wake Forest North Carolina like his Dad Jay before him. Missed the cut last time out at the RBC Heritage but I expect a big week from the North Carolina University Tar Heel. Already a winner at the Northern Trust back in February, Haas finished fourth here last year and has vast experience on this extremely tough track.

Jonathan Byrd 85/1

Last year Byrd came off two missed cuts to just lose out in a playoff to Lucas Glover. Rested since a top-30 at Augusta, Byrd is another who knows the course well both as professional and amateur having attended Clemson University and could be worth a look from extremely generous odds of 85/1.

Jim Furyk 40/1

Great to see Jim Furyk returning to form in this Ryder Cup year and he will be hoping to ensure his place on the Team bus with another big week on a course tailor made for his game. Though without a win since the 2010 Tour Championship, Jim has come close recently at the Transitions losing a playoff to Luke Donald. Just out of the top 10 at Arnie’s event and the Masters, then eighth last time out at Hilton Head. A past winner here in 2006, Furyk been 11th or better in three of the last four stagings.

Phil Mickelson 13/1

I rarely back Phil after a layoff but he loves the greens at Quail Hollow and always gives value for money. Had this event by scruff of the neck last year until a poor back nine on the Saturday set him back. Nevertheless Leftie has a record of finishing 12th or better every year since 2007 with a best of second to McIlroy (who plays this week) in 2010. Has already been first (Pebble Beach), second (Riviera), third (Augusta) and fourth (Houston) this season!

Best Of The Rest

I’m going with locals this week! Webb Simpson 42/1 was born in Charlotte and like Bill Haas attended Wake Forest University. He knows Quail Hollow inside out and I saw a spark in him last week in New Orleans where he posted his first under par finish in four events coming 13th. Belly putters seem to do on the greens also and I give Webb a real chance. Finished 21st last year, a poor Saturday spoiling his week. Former Major champ Lucas Glover 160/1 went to Clemson in South Carolina and is also a course specialist. As well as winning last season he has finished tied for second here in 2009 and tied fourth in 2006 on a course ranked second toughest on the PGA Tour’s rota outside Majors. Haas was actually born in Charlotte and played his college golf at Wake Forest North Carolina like his Dad Jay before him. Missed the cut last time out at the RBC Heritage but I expect a big week from the North Carolina University Tar Heel. Already a winner at the Northern Trust back in February, Haas finished fourth here last year and has vast experience on this extremely tough track.

Yet another star was born on the European Tour’s Asian swing with Bernd Wiesberger winning in Korea. The Austrian entered the final round five shots clear and completed the procession victory with a four under round of 68. So dominanat was Wiesberger that he set the course record 65 on Friday, then equaled it on Saturday and played the final 59 holes without even dropping one shot. The win was sealed with an 18 foot birdie on the final green to post an 18 under par total. The amazing thing is that it was Wieberger’s first time ever seeing the course in this his 71st Tour event.

“I just tried to enjoy it and I had the three best rounds of my life,” said Wiesberger who was one over playing the 13th in round one. “I tried not to make bogeys and I did that pretty well, it was awesome.

Next home was Scot Richie Ramsay whose birdie on the last means his card of 65 will also be posted on the clubhouse wall as he finished second on his own, two ahead of Marcus Fraser and France’s Victor Dubuisson. Wiesberger’s winnings bring him to €438,464 in The 2012 Race to Dubai and will most likely jump him inside the top 100 in the world rankings for the first time in his career. His previous best were two second places in South Africa and Gleneagles last season. Host sponsor and whiskey company Ballantine’s came in for universal praise from the entire field with Tour boss George O’Grady probably the happiest man of all as he was presented with a bottle of 40 year old hooch which almost brought a smile to his face!

Stateside the PGA Tour was visiting New Orleans for the Zurich Classic. The event boiled down to a dramatic playoff between the understated Jason Dufner and Hall Of Famer Ernie Els. On the second playing of the 18th hole Dufner tapped in for birdie and his first ever Tour win at 35 years of age. It’s set to a hectic week for Jason, he gets married to his long time girlfriend Amanda Boyd next weekend!

Dufner came into the Zurich Classic with three top 10′s in the last three stagings, bettering his result each year but many believed he lacked the bottle to win on Tour. He also lead after two rounds of this year’s Masters. “There’s a been a good bit of pressure,” Dufner said. “People talking about, `Why aren’t you winning? Why can’t you close the deal? … Friends, family, media, even people in my inner circle. And not in a negative way, but when you’re leading tournaments going into weekends and you’re finishing 24th, there’s going to be some questions.”

He answered them emphatically yesterday.

In regulation play Dufner shot a final round 2-under 70, to match the 19-under total posted by Els playing just ahead. Both men were clearly suffering from nerves as they missed short birdie putts on the first playoff hole. That seemed to embolden Dufner second time around as he striped his drive down the middle and then found the green in two with a hybrid as Els was prodding his second up the fairway from a bunker. When Els missed his birdie putt from just off the apron, Dufner’s two footer sealed the deal.

“To get the monkey off of my back, it’s a great feeling,” he said after.

Dufner can reflect on a 44 foot monster putt for par on the par-3 16th as his shot of the day and most probably the turning point in the tournament.

Luke Donald this morning also wakes up a happy man, again celebrating being the World’s Number 1 player as he overtook Rory McIlroy with a third place finish. The reign could be a short one however with the return of Rory McIlroy at this week’s Quail Hollow event which is also set to feature Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.

Defending Zurich Classic champion and Masters winner Bubba Watson, finished a respectable tied 18th considering he spent most of the week in the media centre. “All in all, pretty good week being tired, coming back for the first time after winning the Masters, all this different media attention,” Watson said. “It’s something you got to get used to. (It) wears on you, tires you out. Somehow I finished — I’m in the top 20. A lot of guys wished they did that.”

And finally back to Jason Dufner and his wife to be Amanada. They are going to spend their honeymoon on an island. The 17th at Sawgrass in two weeks!

Keegan Bradley 22/1

It’s only tournament number 40 for the PGA Champion and only his second visit to the Zurich Classic. Last year he finished 26th with a 68 on Sunday indicating the reconnaissance mission was a success. Rested since his Masters appearance, Bradley remains one of the favorites for this or any other event at the moment with three top 10’s in his last six starts.

Luke Donald 15/1

Luke has been off the boil by his standards in his two appearances since winning the Transitions but returns after a week off knowing that he has the tools most of the rest have not to tackle this layout. Tied for eighth here last year during the greatest purple patch of his career to date and will be looking for that that spark to find that form again here. Second in strokes gained in putting which could be a vital stat this week. With Bubba in the field, Donald can slip under the radar somewhat media wise which should help.

Jason Dufner 30/1

Three top 10’s in his last three visits here and better still Jason has improved his result here every year since 2009. Tied for third last year after carding a final round 66. Top 25 finishes in his last four starts and could have been so much better at Augusta, Dufner might just be the man to break through this week.

Graeme McDowell 32/1

Gmac was going through a bad patch this time last year and missed the cut at TPC Louisiana. He enters this week however on a good run of form with top 15’s in four of his last five events including that second place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Nobody hits it closer from 150-175 yards on Tour than GMac and if he can find the right segments of the greens here this week, he looks a good each way chance.

Best Of The Rest

Brian Gay 90/1 has no record to speak of at the Zurich Classic but his fourth place finish last week, at a tough Texas layout, will have him full of confidence heading into this week. Gay vaulted 20 places in the strokes gained in putting stats with his performance on the greens last week and many say another putting contest lies in wait this week with big undulations a feature of the greens here.

Jerry Kelly 120/1 won here in 2009 and remains one my favourite players on Tour. His 66 last Sunday saw him finish in 18th, his fourth top 30 in five events. He did miss the cut here last year after last weekend I expect a strong performance with every emotion on show for the viewers.

Adam Scott 12/1

The star man in the field this week after Lee Westwood decided not defend the title he won here last year. Though without a win in 2012 Scott is enjoying another lucrative season with results of 17, 13 and 8 in his last three events. Scott’s philosophy is to play much less and practice more (in the Bahamas) this year, though many thought his lack of tournament practice cost him at the Masters. It will be interesting to see how he performs this week.

Sang-Moon Bae 19/1

The home favourite this week will be Sang-Moon Bae. The 25 year old divides his time between the Asian Tour, Japan Tour and PGA Tour where he first popped up on our radars at the WGC Matchplay in getting to the quarter finals. Lost a four man playoff to Luke Donald at the Transitions, but hasn’t featured since. Withdrew from the RBC Heritage two weeks ago citing a sore right shoulder but Bae remains the best hope of the sizable Asian contingent this week.

Damien McGrane 80/1

If weather is a factor, and it so often is in Korea, don’t rule out Meathman Damien McGrane. He’s been having a super season so far with good results in Andalucia and last week in China sandwiching a second place in Morocco. McGrane’s only Tour win came in Asia in 2008 at the China Open and he lead here after the first round last year before finishing in a tie for 13th. An each way chance.

Alex Noren 34/1

Last week saw a massive breakthrough for Noren when he put behind him a run of three missed cuts and five over par finishes to record a tied sixth finish. That should serve a confidence booster to the 2011 Nordea Masters winner as he heads back to Blackstone. The Swede lead after a rain delayed third round round here last year but a final round 74 left him trailing eventual winner Lee Westwood by four shots, good enough for tied fifth. If you get the chance check out Noren’s Golfer On The Move blog, it’s one of the best player blogs out there.

Marcus Fraser 36/1

Another man enjoying a confidence boosting return to form is Aussie Marcus Fraser who tied for sixth last week in China after missing the previous two cuts. Fraser is a former winner of the Ballantine’s, winning in 2010 at it’s former home, Pinx. Last week’s stat of 26.5 putts per round will prove critical at Blackstone where the key requirement this week is putting.

Best Of The Rest

Miguel Angel Jimenez 32/1 has a great record in Asia but the question is being asked again; are the wagons circling on his career at the highest level? Last year Jimenez brought a solid under par US Masters performance into this tournament where he quickly mastered the treacherously undulating greens. Finished in second after carding nine straight pars on the back nine Sunday. It would be great to see another win from the genial Spaniard. Brett Rumford 70/1 bounced back from a missed cut in Malaysia with a decent showing in China last week. Finished with three rounds in the 60’s to record his fourth top-30 of the season. Shot a remarkable 63 in the second round here last year and when you see the greens on this course on Thursday you’ll realize how remarkable a feat that was. Without a win since 2007 but hey, every dog has his day! Finally keep an eye on the progress of Richard Finch from 70/1. It was great to see the former Irish Open winner back on the podium last week and if he maintains his form on the greens could be in line for another good cheque this week.