Steve Stricker 20/1

Some say Steve Stricker does not have the game to win a Masters but he sure as hell has one that can win in Houston. This tournament makes no apologies for being the Augusta warm up and sets up as easy as any course on Tour off the tee. The test here is around the greens and they don’t come much better than Stricker at that. Second in scrambling on the PGA Tour stats and tied fourth last year, I think he will do well this week.

Hunter Mahan 28/1

Somewhat out of sorts since winning the WGC Cadillac with his new Nome putter but Mahan likes this Redstone Course. Since the event moved here (from the Member course) in 2006, Mahan has posted three top-10’s. He arguably could have done better if his short game was sharper but on his week is certainly one to watch.

JB Holmes 120/1

Great to see JB Holmes back on Tour after his health scare last season. Hasn’t done much since his top 10 at Riviera back in February but shot a super four under final round in really tough conditions at Bay Hill last Sunday. Holmes has a best of second here in 2009, losing a playoff to Paul Casey. Very generous odds of 120/1.

Kevin Stadler 28/1

I’ve been keeping an eye on Kevin Stadler for the past few weeks and I really fancy him each way in Houston. Stadler played a seven week stretch leading up to the lower order Peurto Rico Open a couple of weeks back and improved his result in every one of the events. Tied for sixth in 2010 and known as an excellent scrambler, don’t say you weren’t warned!

Johnson Wagner 42/1

It’s something of a milestone for Johnson Wagner this week as he starts his 150th event. The moustachioed one has been having a cracking season, winning the Sony Open, coming second at the Humana Challenge and finishing in a tie for fourth again last week. Couple to that the fact that Wagner won here in 2008 and suddenly those odds of 42/1 seem very generous indeed.

Best Of The Rest

I’m going to give you some really long odds shots this week. (As if Kevin Na’s tied fourth from 90/1 didn’t pay you out enough last week!) Fred Couples is in great form winning last week on the Champions Tour and loves Houston. He tied fourth in 2008 and tied third in 2009 and if his back holds up for the four days seems a nice each way bet at 150/1. Chad Campbell is 250/1 and despite not having done anything of note since a good performance at last years British Open, shows up on my radar around Redstone. He tied second in 2008 and finished just outside the top 10 last year.

Jim Furyk 36/1

A welcome return to form last week getting into the playoff at The Transitions. Shotlink placed Furyk fourth in greens in regulation, a stat which will be even more critical this week. Tied 11th in 2010 and tied ninth last year. If Furyk can do better than his opening round 74 of 12 months ago, he can contend again this week.

Ernie Els 50/1

Found out a little in his short putting last week and then faced “that interview” with Steve Sands after. If Els is to have any chance of keeping up his record of appearing in every Masters since 1993, he needs to perform this week. BayHill is a course where experience counts. Els has won here when the course was a par 70 and again when it reverted back to a 72 in 2010. Good in the wind, we know he’s in good form so what’s not to like?

Sergio Garcia 27/1

Of the European contingent I think Sergio Garcia has a decent shout this week. Bay Hill is all about shotmaking with it’s four par 3’s ranking collectively as the toughest on Tour and Garcia is haute couture when it comes to designing shots. Tied 16th last week just five shots off the pace but better than that, only took four bogeys all week ranking fifth in greens in regulation. The greens at Bay Hill are super tough, even the best struggle to make birdies, and this plays into the Spaniard’s hands. This will be his 11th event at the venue and been in the top 10 six times, including last year.

Justin Rose 19/1

Recent winner at the WGC Cadillac and sure to be in the mix again this week. Word from inside the ropes is that everyone is marveling at Rose’s ball striking right now. Don’t be fooled either at his tied 29th last week, according to shotlink Rose actually tied for first in greens hit in regulation, something that will pay more dividends this week. Rose won twice within a month in 2010, so don’t rule it out.

Best Of The Rest

I feel a bit guilty for tipping Webb Simpson 22/1 last week so I’m going to make it up by going with him one more time at Bay Hill. He may not have cashed in at Copperhead but again but in a good performance with a tied 10th finish. Shot all four rounds in the 60’s and certainly is one to keep an eye on over the coming weeks. Kevin Na at 90/1 may not be a form dog coming into this week but he is a horse for course and those odds are too generous for a guy who tied 2nd as recently as 2010.

Webb Simpson 22/1
Starts his 100th Tour event this week and will be looking to add to his two wins last year at The Wyndham and Deutsche Bank. Third in Hawaii back in January and a top 10 in Phoenix, Simpson has yet to fire for all four days at a tournament. Mixed the sublime with the ridiculous last week at Doral where a pair of 66’s were sandwiched in between a 75 and 77. Did enough though to impress me though, even if paired with sideshow Woods in the final round.

John Senden 46/1

Arguably one of the the players of the tournament at last weeks WGC Cadillac. Followed a first round 76 with 67, 68 and a final round 65 to tie for sixth. That’s the second top 10 of the season for the big Aussie, third if you count the matchplay. Tied for second here twice in 2007 and 2008 and tied 15th last season. Real chances of a top five.

Nick Watney 27/1
May have been weighed down with expectation last week at the WGC as defending champion and can approach this one a bit looser and more gung ho for the challenge. This will be Nick’s seventh event at Innisbrook and he’s been in top 15 in the last three. A best finish of fourth in 2010 when Jim Furyk won.

Jonathan Byrd 55/1
This will be Byrd’s tenth start at Palm Harbour and he’s never missed a cut. His best finish here is fourth in 2006 when the then Chrysler Championship used be staged in late October. A good solid campaigner with top 10’s this season at the Tournament of Champions and at the Northern Trust Open. Should be available at around 6/1 “to finish in the top 10”.

Best Of The Rest
If short odds dont put you off there were signs that Luke Donald 12/1 was returning to his old self last week at Doral where he tied for sixth. Donald didn’t play here last year and indeed has only played twice at Innisbrook in 2010 and 2003. His last visit saw him tie for sixth. Those looking to take a punt on a form horse should look at Charl Schwartzel 17/1. Two top fives in his last two events and yet couldn’t buy a put last weekend at Doral. A word of warning though on Sxhwartzel, he may the form horse but he’s never even been to the track before!

Tiger Woods 8/1
I hate tipping Tiger but with Rory likely to start this event around 5/1 there seems to be a bit more value in Woods. Changed to his old Ping grip last week and said it helped with his release. A final round of 62 on the toughChampions course last week showed that he’s getting to grips with his game again. Tied for tenth last year whilst struggling with his swing but won in Doral three years straight from 2005 to 2007, two of those coming before the event got WGC status.

Charl Schwartzel 34/1
It’s nearly green jacket time and Charl Schwartzel is enjoying a welcome return to form just in time. Added another tied fifth at the Honda to his fifth at the Volvo Golf Champions event in Fancourt back in January. His ball striking will be rewarded on some of the easiest greens on Tour this week. Solo second here in 2010 but don’t mention last year to Charl, he bombed out on the Saturday.

Hunter Mahan 34/1
Rested and rejuvenated, the latest WGC winner will be itching to get back into competition this week. Gamed the new Ping Nome in the desert and expect to see him drain more putts this week. His ninth place finish here last year probably doesn’t reflect the performance, he lead after two rounds

Lee Westwood 15/1
Beginning to find his feet on the PGA Tour with a fourth place finish at the Honda to go with his fourth at the matchplay. The Americans do stats like no other and Lee pops up there third in greens in regulation, second in scrambling and second only to Rory in scoring average. It all suggests a win is coming and he won’t get a better chance than on these super flat greens.

Dustin Johnson 34/1
Great to see DJ returning to form after his surgery over the Winter. Top fives at his course Pebble Beach and at tough Riviera and a good run in the desert leave him primed for a tilt at the title this week. Dustin might feel The Blue Monster owes him one after finishing second last year two shots behind Nick Watney.

Best Of The Rest
Matt Kuchar 46/1 thought it best to take last week off after a poor Honda showing in 2011 and starts on his fifth PGA Tour event of the season this week. The long odds reflect Kuch’s recent form of mid table mediocrity but hehad a good run at the WGC Accenture recently and is a big fan of The Blue Monster having tied third in 2010 and fifth last year. The key for Kuchar is driving accuracy; one good week off the tee and he will contend. Scanning the odds on Betfair I see Fredrik Jacobson at 140/1. He finished 67, 69 to finish 16 at the Honda last week and I think he could reward a small each way investment at those odds.

Keegan Bradley 30/1

You have just gotta love the way Keegan Bradley handled the press last week when talking about his on course spitting. As honest as they come both on and off the course, I predict another good week for him in Florida. Okay he did bomb out here last year, but is a completely different player since as evidenced by his US PGA win in August. Ran Mickelson close on another tough track at Riviera a few weeks back in finishing second and hasn’t been outside the top 20 so far this season.

Fredrik Jacobson 65/1

My “go to” man for tough courses and they don’t come much tougher than “The Bear Trap” on the Champions Course. Last season was great for Freddie in his painters cap. Remember his great third round at Congressional in the US Open and the fact he put aside a disappointing final round there to win The Travelers the following week. Finished last season in storming style and in his 2012 debut at tough Riviera a closing 67 bagged a creditable top 15 spot. Performed poorly last year here but has two top 10’s previous to that to give hope.

Mark Wilson 50/1

Very impressive at the matchplay last week winning the consolation match against Lee Westwood to finish third. Wilson won here in 2007, the first year the Champions Course at PGA National was used after a Jack Nicklaus revamp. A word of warning though, six rounds in the desert Sun plus all the media commitments at the WGC is bound to have taken some toll on 37 year old Wilson and stamina may be an issue. There’s no questioning his desire though having already bagged a win in 2012 at the Humana Challenge.

Graeme McDowell 46/1

Even though the field includes the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood, I think there is a nice bit of value in Graeme McDowell this week. Bumped out of the matchplay in the first round last week, it wasn’t long before Gmac was posting up videos of himself and caddie Kenny playing in the dark back in Florida. The 2010 US Open Champion will be right at home on the Bermuda greens of the Florida swing and shot a super 64 in the final round last year to tie sixth. Third in both of the HSBC events either side of Christmas and definitely one to watch.

Best Of The Rest

Kyle Stanley 34/1 is having a super start to the season having come second at the Farmers and won in Phoenix a couple of weeks back. This was only Kyle’s fifth start on the PGA Tour last year and he actually lead at the halfway point before fading at the weekend. Of the new breed of muscle players Stanley is surprisingly accurate lying fifth in the Tour’s greens in regulation stats. Ben Crane 38/1 is also one to watch. A top class putter, that talent will be called upon in the Bear Trap. A great man for self deprecation but there’s a serious side to Crane too with three top 10’s including that recent second in Phoenix. If you’re looking for an each way bet or a “to finish in the top 10” chance then take a look at Robert Allenby. I have to admit he’s not my cup of tea and hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2011 but he’s a dogged campaigner and another of the 40 plus brigade. Lost a playoff in Mexico last week and having top fives in 2008 and 2009, a top 10 this week would not surprise.

Hogan Bracket | Bubba Watson 40/1

What an incredible group with three of last years semi finalists in the top half of the bracket alone. I think the world matchplay owes Bubba Watson one after last year when Kaymer beat him after a great tussle. Two down with two to play Watson made a great birdie on 17 to prove he wanted it. Alas it was Kaymer that prevailed but that experience coupled with his awesome long game –he traded 400 yard drives with JB Holmes in a match last year- make Watson a good man to follow this week.

Jones Bracket | Luke Donald 18/1

The World Number One’s crown may be slipping a little but he loves this event and I for one wont be betting against him. Utterly dominant at Dove Mountain last year destroying all comers along the way. Donald’s ability to read these greens better than most others gives him a decided advantage in what might be considered a weaker bracket. One problem might be that he doesn’t have much experience of the last few holes; he usually has his opponent beat by then.

Snead Bracket | Nico Colsaerts 95/1

If you’re looking for some long odds glory this week, you could do worse than Nicolas Colsaerts. The Belgian has the power to reduce this 7,800 yard track to size and he’s also working with putting coach Dave Stockton on the practice green as we speak. Sometimes a player with a new coach finds something immediately. Nico would have to beat Lee Westwood and possibly Tiger Woods to progress from the group but thats the beauty of matchplay; you just never know what might happen.

Player Bracket | Jason Day 36/1

Aussie Jason Day will be quietly happy with the draw even though a possible encounter with McIlroy or Garcia is one the cards if he progresses. Hated narrow Riviera last week and bombed out but down let that distract you. Day, for me, has the character and fighting quality to be a great match player. This could be his time.