Johnson Wagner 16/1

The favourite this week and justifiably so. Wagner won here last year with four rounds in the 60’s and beat Spencer Levin in a playoff. This year he already has a win at the Sony Open, a second at the Clinton Humana Challenge and a top 10 in Hawaii. Finished on level par last week at Riviera maintaining a record of having not finished over par for eight straight events.

Brian Gay 18/1

A good top 10 in Hawaii is the highlight of the season so far for Gay though he did top 20 at Pebble despite a horrid Saturday. This course however is right up Gay’s back alley, with its requirement for precision irons. He won here in 2008 shooting a third round 62 along the way and again contended last year tying fifth when his formline coming in was not as good as his right now.

Briny Baird 48/1

The man with the straw hat most famous for hitting a shot from a high rise into a baseball stadium! Okay that may be a bit harsh on Briny who always seems to front up at El Camaleon. He’s been in the top 10 for the last three years tying sixth in 2009, fourth in 2010 and fifth again last year. And he has bettered his score for the past three years. Last week was his first made cut this season so confidence is bound to be sky high! Seriously though, Mayakoba is one for experience and Baird has it in spades around here.

Spencer Levin 15/1

This could be the perfect week for Spencer Levin to grab a win. With all the top guys off playing matchplay in the desert it may be a case of “when the cats away the mice will play”. Levin recovered from his Phoenix final round meltdown to record another top 10 the following week at Pebble and though Riviera was spoiled with a Sunday 78, I fancy him for a good showing this week. Lost the playoff here to Johnson Wagner in 2011. Keep calm Spencer!

Jarrod Lyle 22/1

How impressive was Jarrod Lyle last week at Riviera? He finished the week tied for fourth on one of the toughest tracks of the year. The same precision iron play required to hit greens in regulation will be a requirement again this week. Lyle has played in this event three times and never been outside the top nine. T6 in 2009 was followed by a T9 in 2010 and a T5 last year. Big possibilities.

Jeev Milkha Singh 25/1

Golf is the fastest growing sport in India and one of its most famous faces is Jeev Milkha Singh. Started well in Dubai last week but struggled thereafter to finish down the field. Jeev battles with a back problem and it was this injury that ended his title challenge here last year. One behind going into the final round, the Indian played through the pain barrier to card a 75 and finish just outside the top 10. Fully fit, he has the course knowledge to place.

David Drysdale 55/1

Solid if unspectacular in Dubai, David Drysdale is just one great putting week away from another big European Tour finish. The DLF should suit the Scot, who’s driving and greens in regulation stats combined were the best in the field last week. His third at the Joburg Open will hopefully stand him in good stead down the stretch this week.

Gregory Havret 25/1

I’m going to stick with Gregory Havret for one more week. Finished 24th in Dubai which wasn’t bad if you take into account he was 10 shots behind winner Rafa Cabrera Bello after the first round! Played well here last year birdying three of the last four holes on Sunday to finish third. Putting will be the key for Havret in India, he top 10’d on the stats last week and if he can do so again will be a threat on this short New Delhi track.

Romain Wattel 36/1

If Havret doesn’t do the business this week then maybe his protégée, 21 year old Romain Wattel will oblige. The two are members of Bussy St Georges Golf Club near Paris. Wattel won as a teenager on the Challenge Tour and though this week will be only his 34th Tour start, he has already clocked up two top 15’s in Abu Dhabi and Dubai last week. High on the putting stats when we plays well, that will be vital this week.

Best Of The Rest

Holland’s Joost Luiten 18/1 didn’t set the world alight in the desert but I think he has the game to feature this week having won in Malaysia in late November on his last trip down to this part of the world. Another player who I think has a fantastic putting game is Rhys Davies 42/1. The Welshman will start from very high odds this week having missed the cut in Dubai. The DLF course is world’s apart from what the played on last week so it will be interesting to see how he fares. Obviously it’s more difficult to keep tabs on all the Asian Tour players but I will be keeping an eye out for Mardan Mamat 60/1 who won recently in the Philippines. And of course how could we forget our old friend Kiradech Aphibarnrat 60/1 whose sure to give us plenty of smiles.

Martin Kaymer 11/1

Having considered Rors, Quiros and Kaymer for my short odds tip, this week I’m plumping for the German as the more in-form putter of the three. Worked hard after missing the cut in Abu Dhabi on his season debut to scrape into the top 10 in Qatar. A three time winner in neighbouring Abu Dhabi but never in Dubai though he did come very close in 2008 when Tiger pipped him by one. Hard to imagine a desert swing without at least one cameo from Kaymer.

Peter Hanson 24/1

Tied second last Sunday in Qatar and hit far too many good putts that burned the edges and yet did not drop. That’s three top fours in his last four events for Peter folks and while some pundits may question his ability to be a prolific winner, I think the Swede makes an excellent each way punt. Fnished just inside the top 10 last year a live one for me.

Nicolas Colsaerts 36/1

There’s just no way Nico can putt as bad as last week; statistically over five putts per round worse than winner Paul Lawrie in Qatar. Quiros won this last year by reducing the place to a pitch and putt course and I think Nicolas has all the tools to do the same this week. He was the leader in greens in regulation last week, a key stat in this course in Dubai. The Belgian will be working hard on the putting green all week. Top 30 here last season following a missed cut in Qatar; but Nico is in a totally different place this time around.

Anders Hansen 36/1

Anders is on a 12 event cut streak but hasn’t really featured since his third place finish at last years US PGA Championship. Top 15 in his last couple of events thanks to being the straighest batter in the field. Also drove it great last year on his way to tying second one behind Quiros and I think the Dane is close to adding to his 2009 Joburg and 2007 PGA wins.

Gregory Havret 90/1

Call me crazy but I have a strong inclination for Gregory Havret this week. After missing the cut in his first two events of the season Gregory finished 25th in Qatar last Sunday. I’m using the Moneyball theory on this one, anyone who has seen the film will know what I mean. Havret’s driving is impeccable (he get’s on base a lot!) , we know that from Pebble in 2010, as is his putting. If he gets his greens in regulation stats up a couple of notches this the Frenchman can contend. Tied for fifth in 2005, a long time ago! Don’t hang me out to dry on this one, it’s more a hunch.

Best of The Rest

Ricardo Gonzalez (75/1) is a real free spirit on the golf course and in the best traditions of Argentinean golf, he just gets on with it. Played well last week and always plays in streaks so it’s Dubai or bust for Ricardo. I was very impressed with Jean Baptiste Gonnet (60/1) last week when he tied fifth. He tied fourth here last year and is worth an each way squeak from good odds.

Lee Westwood 11/1

17th last week in Abu Dhabi but Lee was playing through a neck injury. Excellent greens in regulation stats stood out though and if Lee can get on the practice green early in Doha and find his range, he could be the one to beat.

Sergio Garcia 16/1

The Spaniard has two wins in his last five events and a worst finish of 12th. He’s also just one good putting week away from a win. Garcia has done well on this track over the years with three top 10′s in his last four appearences here. He has the consistency for me to give him the edge over others I considered in this category including Thomas Bjorn and Alvaro Quiros.

Graeme McDowell 17/1

Graeme is loving life right now and though this tied third last week might be due in part to some outrageous luck, I think he will have a big week in Qatar. A combined 44 under for his last four events and the talk of the locker room with his new fashion deal with Kartel.

George Coetzee 38/1

Bettered his finish in each of the three events he has played in 2012. 29th in the Affrica Open, 14th in the Joburg Open and sixth in exalted company last week in Abu Dhabi. If I had to pick a surprise player to win a Major in the next three years, George would be my man. He may not have the experience of some of the others in the field, but boy can George golf.

Best Of The Rest

As predicted last week Paul Lawrie (50/1) was good value for money throughout the week and though he slipped to ninth at the finish in Abu Dhabi, could well have a say in this tournament also.
Another tip in the long odds glory section is Rafa Cabrera Bello (150/1). His
form line would never lead you to pick him but he shot a 77 in the first round here last year, then followed it with 68,66,68 to finish third. If he can start better this year Rafa could add to his Austria win in 2009. Thorbjorn Olesen (80/1) came off a desperate run towards the end of last season to finish strongly in Dubai. Top tenned last week and putted better than the entire field. At odds of he could be a decent each way bet. For those of you who like to back and lay on the exchanges, I always pick my favourite players Johan Edfors (150/1) and Richard Green (200/1) in Doha. Maybe its for sentimental reasons but someday it might just come good!

Winner Alright

In last week’s Joburg Open best of the rest section we tipped winner Branden Grace at 46/1 and Jaco Van Zyl who tied third at 18/1.

Louis Oosthuizen 8/1

What can you say about this man that might deter you from having a punt on him this week? Not very much really except perhaps if he has one eye on the upcoming birth of his second child. On the course Louis is on fire and came into the Africa Open on the tail end of five straight top-10’s across the world. Won there with an incredible 27 under. Great in the wind and on links, he’s the nap of the week.

Darren Clarke 50/1

If Gary Player and his team spent months on the links of Ireland to gain inspiration for this course at Fancourt then Darren Clarke may well be the man to tame it. Twice a winner last season most memorably on the St Georges links in the Summer. Clarke loves coming down to South Africa, he shot a 63 in the Joburg Open in 2010, and if the wind blows he could very well come into a place.

Paul Lawrie 44/1

Last season, it’s fair to say, was probably Lawrie’s best and most satisfying on Tour since the turn of the century when he regularly passed the million euro earnings mark. Won the Open de Andalucia and give Alvaro Quiros a run for his money at the season finale in Dubai. Accomplished on links and in the wind and bound to be full of confidence, I’m hopeful of a top 10 if not much better for the Scot.

Best Of The Rest

I’m a big fan of Miguel Angel Jimenez 24/1 and am reminded of his broken putter incident at this event in Bahrain last season. After a good laugh with Darren Clarke and Monty he birdied the next three holes with his wedge on his way to tying second. Whether this course will suit the Mechanic, I really cant tell but if he’s up there Friday evening he’s worth a euro. Two others worth keeping an eye on over the coming weeks are Swede Alex Noren 27/1 who I know has been busy practicing in Florida in anticipation of his season opener and Gonzalo Castano who had great finish to last season with a second at the Castello Masters and a win at the weather hit Barclays Singapore Open.